Patrick Lavon Mahomes II is now one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history.
Mahomes was born on September 17, 1995, in Tyler, Texas. He was a multi-sport athlete and did well in football, baseball, and basketball at Whitehouse High School.
Pat Mahomes, his father, was a Major League Baseball pitcher. The younger Mahomes says that his years on the mound helped him build the arm strength and athleticism that make him so special behind center.
The Kansas City Chiefs picked Mahomes 10th overall in the 2017 NFL Draft.
He had a great college career at Texas Tech, where he won the Sammy Baugh Trophy and led the FBS in passing yards and touchdowns as a junior.
He was a backup in his first year, but in 2018 he became the starter. What happened next was nothing short of historic.
He threw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns in his first full season, winning the NFL MVP award.
Mahomes has since led the Chiefs to seven straight AFC Championship Games and five Super Bowls, where he won three Super Bowl MVP awards.
A lot of people think he is the best quarterback of his time. But the 2025 season was the first big setback for him.
In December, he tore his ACL, which cut his year short and made people wonder what would happen in 2026.
The 2026 NFL Season Has Not Started Yet, But the Predictions Are Already Exciting
Before diving in, it is important to note that the 2026 NFL season has not yet begun.
The league is currently in its offseason, with the regular season set to kick off in September 2026.
What follows is a forward-looking breakdown — grounded in Mahomes’ historical statistics, his 2025 performance data, and expert predictions — that makes the case for why 2026 could be another MVP-caliber season for the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback.
Mahomes suffered a torn ACL and LCL in December 2025, ending what was already his most difficult season as a professional.
He posted career lows in completion percentage, passing yards, and passing touchdowns.
Some of that decline traces back to the injury itself, but analysts also pointed to a stale offensive system and a lack of a reliable rushing attack as contributing factors.
Despite all of that, NFL experts remain overwhelmingly bullish on Mahomes heading into 2026.
ESPN’s Dan Graziano predicted the Chiefs will return to the Super Bowl, citing Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid as reasons not to count Kansas City out after one down year.
Fellow ESPN analyst Jason Reid echoed that sentiment, noting that Mahomes entering his age-31 season with the Chiefs’ full organizational support makes a championship run very realistic.
Aaron Schatz went a step further, picking Mahomes as his 2026 MVP, stating plainly that he considers Mahomes the best player in the game and is comfortable picking him for the award every year he is healthy.
To project what Mahomes might accomplish in 2026, it helps to examine his 2025 statistics through the games he did play.
Before the injury, Mahomes showed flashes of his elite form, particularly during the first half of the season.
Through his first eight games of 2025, he posted a 67.0% completion percentage, a 103.1 passer rating, and was on pace for 36 passing touchdowns — numbers directly comparable to his 2022 MVP season.
One of the most exciting developments from 2025 was his expanded role as a runner.
Mahomes averaged 35 rushing yards per game — nearly double his 21.1 average during the 2022 season — and was on pace for 9 rushing touchdowns, which would shatter his career high.
He averaged a career-best 6 rushing attempts per game, making him a genuine dual-threat weapon in ways defenses had not previously had to account for at the same level.
If he carries that dimension of his game into 2026 after recovering from his knee surgery, opposing defensive coordinators will face an entirely new set of problems.
Comparing Mahomes’ projected 2026 trajectory against his two previous MVP campaigns reveals just how attainable another landmark season is.
In 2018, he set an almost unreachable standard with 5,097 passing yards, 50 touchdowns, and a 113.8 passer rating.
In 2022, he led the league in both passing yards and touchdowns while winning the Super Bowl and earning both the regular season and Super Bowl MVP awards.
His 2025 first-half numbers slotted comfortably between those two benchmarks.
If Mahomes returns fully healthy in September 2026 — which both his medical team and the Chiefs organization expect — and the offensive system gets the refresh it needs, a season in the range of 4,500 to 5,000 passing yards, 38 to 45 touchdowns, and continued production on the ground represents a realistic ceiling.
That kind of output, combined with the Chiefs’ built-in organizational advantages, would make him the frontrunner for MVP from opening weekend.
Kansas City has significant offseason work ahead of it, including navigating roughly $58 million in projected salary cap overages.
However, the Chiefs have demonstrated repeatedly that they can retool quickly.
Their 2022 offseason rebuild — which produced a Super Bowl championship — stands as proof that one productive draft and smart free agency additions can transform a roster.
Mahomes’ weapons heading into 2026 include tight end Travis Kelce, wide receivers Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, and additional depth options.
If the front office adds even one impact playmaker at wide receiver or running back, the offense could look dramatically different from the unit that sputtered late in 2025.
A stronger running game would also take pressure off Mahomes and reduce the wear on his surgically repaired knee as he eases back into full activity.
Only six players in NFL history — Jim Brown, Johnny Unitas, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers — have won three or more NFL MVP awards. Mahomes has two.
A healthy, motivated Mahomes with a refreshed supporting cast and a point to prove after his first missed postseason represents perhaps the most dangerous version of an already legendary quarterback.
